See 'Policy Research' page for further links and details.
Skills / Tools
'R', GGPLOT, BAYESIAN REGRESSION ANALYSIS
CORPORATE SECULAR STAGNATION (WITH JANGHO YANG)
We detail a secular slowdown in investment rates using a large panel of advanced economy firms from 18 countries between 1994-2017. We test competing explanations for this using a Bayesian ‘mixed effects’ model, with time-varying and country-varying coefficients. The slope of the investment demand curve remains roughly constant, indicating that growing monopoly power has not dulled firms' responsiveness to investment opportunities. Contrary to precautionary savings arguments, advanced economy firms are not meaningfully financially constrained. The corporate sector as a whole is increasingly a net external `releaser' of funds to shareholders, creditors, and bondholders, and this closely tracks declining investment rates.
Preliminary findings published with Oxford University's Oxford Martin School Working Paper series.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Writings on foreign direct investment published with Columbia University, UNCTAD, and others.
Book chapter for Columbia University's International Investment Yearbook 2015 (Oxford University Press): Using a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters and a detailed discussion of FDI national account statistics (here).
Published with UNCTAD's Transnational Corporation Journal, here.
I use R language for data analysis, data visualisation (ggplot), and panel regressions (Bayesian). I work tends to use Bayesian approaches to statistical research problems. I have expertise in Bayesian multilevel / hierarchical modelling which is essentially a data-informed compromise between fixed effects and random effects, which allows for one to model heterogeneity directly rather than hold it constant through cluster-robust standard errors.